In 1972, as he was preparing for what would turn out to be his landslide reelection that November, President Richard Nixon made an historic trip to the People’s Republic of China. As the old saying goes, he was the only one who could have done it because he’s the only one who wouldn’t have been red-baited by Richard Nixon. His visit was a highly-staged affair, featuring carefully curated images avidly watched by people worldwide, as they hadn’t had a window into China for over two decades. And it was a smashing success, not only politically, but substantively as well.
As historian Rick Perlstein related in “Nixonland: The Rise of a President and the Fracturing of America,” Nixon’s anti-communist agit-prop, honed over many decades, was sincere — but it was only part of the story. The man’s duality was evident by the fact that he truly was the ugly, divisive character that spawned the nickname “Tricky Dick.” At the same time, he possessed a sophisticated worldview and a deep grasp of foreign affairs. Nixon used the opening with China as leverage against the Soviet Union and began the process that led to the end of the Cold War 19 years later. That trip, and the strategy behind it, remain one of his most positive legacies.
Unlike with Nixon, all America can hope for is that Trump doesn’t make such a fool of himself that we find ourselves in even worse economic and national security situations than we’re already in.
Now, 54 years later, Donald Trump is carrying out his own visit to China, and it’s highly unlikely that any such memorable achievement will emerge from it. While the president shares Nixon’s most heinous character flaws, he has no understanding of foreign affairs, and his only claim to a sophisticated worldview is an understanding of the burning question of Italian granite versus Greek marble. Unlike with Nixon, all America can hope for is that Trump doesn’t make such a fool of himself that we find ourselves in even worse economic and national security situations than we’re already in.
In October, when Trump first announced his visit to China, he was high on his tariff regime — and likely imagining he could jet into Beijing and bend Premier Xi Jinping to his will on trade. But seven months later, the tide has turned. Trump is meeting his Chinese counterpart as a weakened leader, hobbled by the Supreme Court’s ruling that found most of his tariffs unconstitutional, as well as the ongoing war in Iran, which a new Washington Post report revealed has shifted the balance of power between the two nations. (China, according to a confidential assessment, has “gained a major edge” on the U.S. during the conflict.) Trump is reportedly seeking China’s help in negotiations with the Islamic Republic to reopen the Strait of Hormuz and draw down the conflict. But any assistance from Xi will almost certainly require concessions from the U.S. that Trump will doubtless attempt to spin as inconsequential, or even nonexistent.
Trump’s war against Iran has led to an interruption of oil supplies and a rapidly cascading disruption of the world economy. China, which has several methods of alternative energy to lean on, has not been as affected by the war as other Asian countries. But Xi must be concerned about the very real possibility of a global recession stemming from Iran’s continued strangling of shipping through the Strait. As the emergency wears on, the Islamic Republic and China are moving closer, leaving the U.S. in an uncomfortable position.
Despite Trump’s apparent belief that Xi loves him like a brother and would give him the shirt off his back, there’s no doubt that China will be looking for reciprocation for any help it provides. That would likely include assurances that the president’s tariff business will be gone for good and that the U.S. will take a much more hands-off policy toward Taiwan. As the Guardian reported, “Trump has relaxed restrictions on the sale of advanced semiconductors to China, shown little support for Taiwan [and] reportedly ordered the Pentagon to cut references to China being a threat from U.S. defence strategy.”
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The Financial Times’ Gideon Rachman has pointed out that China still has a monopoly on rare earth minerals, which they used to great advantage during the recent tariff war. And while the U.S. still dominates in technology, China is rapidly catching up with artificial intelligence and surpassing the country in electronic vehicles. There may be some showy “agreements” that Trump can use to pretend he’s doing something for America, but it’s clear that China holds the cards.
Meanwhile, Trump is already bathing in the flattery inherent in such foreign visits. During his first term, China feted him like a favorite prince with various ceremonies: a private tour of the Forbidden City, followed by a performance by the Peking Opera and a huge state dinner. (They need to be careful this time; there’s no way Trump could stay awake during a Chinese opera these days.)
As is usual with any such Trump event, they all pretended they had made massive deals for billions of dollars, which turned out to be non-binding and mostly never came to fruition. The visit mainly served to convince Trump that all the pomp and circumstance meant that he and Xi are such good friends to this day — and that Xi will do whatever Trump wants him to do. This time around, the president is already praising Xi as his “friend” and predicting a “fantastic future together.”
The truth, of course, is much more complicated. Xi and China’s leaders, according to “private conversations and public writings,” view America as “‘declining but dangerous’ — a late-stage power prone to bursts of aggression in the hopes of arresting its slide,” Ryan Hass wrote in the Atlantic. The director of the China Center and Koo Chair in Taiwan Studies at the Brookings Institution, Hass argued that Xi is content to stand back and let the U.S. flame out, leaving China as the leader in “a world in which their dominance emerges not as a climactic victory over Western interests but as a fact on the ground.”
Richard Nixon would not be happy about that assessment. But while the Chinese may be right in their analysis, they shouldn’t be too smug about it. The U.S. deserves the world’s loss of respect for having returned Trump to office after sending him into exile four years before. The country’s reputation is damaged, probably permanently.
But assuming a wealthy, nuclear superpower that’s “declining but dangerous” will simply flame out is equally dangerous. America may be going down — but it could very well take the rest of the world with it.
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