The U.S. government has officially entered a shutdown, bringing with it the rising threat of mass federal layoffs and cuts to safety-net programs.
In the final hours before funding lapsed, President Donald Trump escalated the stakes, warning that the administration might exploit the shutdown to enact “irreversible” cuts to health care and social benefit programs.
“We can do things during the shutdown that are irreversible, that are bad for them,” Trump told reporters on Tuesday, referring to Democrats. “Like cutting vast numbers of people out (…) cutting programs that they like.”
The scale of potential impact is staggering. The nonpartisan Congressional Budget Office has estimated that up to 750,000 federal employees could be furloughed each day the shutdown persists. The cost of their compensation adds up to about $400 million daily, according to the CBO.
And now, for the first time in recent memory, agencies have been directed to go beyond routine leave notices. A memo from the Office of Management and Budget instructs departments to prepare “reduction in force” (RIF) plans that could convert what have typically been temporary furloughs into permanent terminations, if if their work falls under programs, projects or activities that would lose funding during a lapse in appropriations, have no other source of support and are not aligned with Trump administration policies.
Union leaders have pushed back. In a lawsuit filed in federal court, the American Federation of Government Employees and AFSCME argue that the administration’s threats violate the Antideficiency Act, which forbids spending above available appropriations and requires furloughed workers be paid retroactively. The suit names OMB Director Russell Vought and OPM Director Scott Kupor, claiming that their actions are unlawful.
“The threat of massive layoffs was repeated and reinforced yesterday by the White House press secretary who, when asked whether there will be mass layoffs of federal employees, answered, ‘There will be if Democrats don’t keep the government open,’” according to the complaint. “These actions are contrary to law and arbitrary and capricious, and the cynical use of federal employees as a pawn in Congressional deliberations should be declared unlawful and enjoined by this Court.”
Democrats, too, have decried the strategy. Senate Minority Leader Chuck Schumer, D-N.Y., accused Trump of admitting he is using Americans as “political pawns.”
Sen. Chris Van Hollen, D-Md, likened the administration’s threats to “mafia-style blackmail,” while Sen. Mark Warner, D-Va., accused Trump of treating people’s “lives and livelihoods” as “bargaining chips,” according to reporting from Politico.
Republicans close to Trump are openly celebrating the opportunity in the disruption. “It can provide an opportunity to downsize the scope and scale of government, which is something that we’ve always wanted to do,” House Speaker Mike Johnson, R-La. said on Fox News on Thursday. “So in a way Chuck Schumer has now handed the keys to the kingdom the executive branch under President Trump.”
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