It is a political truism that it’s bad to be the president in charge when the economy turns sour.
It may be especially bad for President Donald Trump — because, through endless controversies during his decade in politics, voters’ belief in his economic savvy has been his most consistent polling bright spot,
Now that bright spot may be gone.
CNN has had the polling company SSRS ask voters whether they approve of Trump’s handling of the economy since the beginning of his first term. They did so again last week — and Trump got positively grim results. Forty-four percent of respondents said they approved, and 56 percent disapproved.
That makes for a net disapproval of 12 percent, which is easily his worst ever in this particular poll, as the below chart shows:
Trump’s (former?) reputation on the economy is an underrated reason for his political strength
There have been endless explanations and theories offered for Trump’s rise and persistence in politics. Some of these are stylistic (his willingness to stoke racism or say offensive things, his tweets), others are ideological (his challenge to the previous GOP elite consensus on immigration, free trade, and foreign policy).
But another key reason for his rise and return is the belief among many voters that Trump is a savvy businessman and would therefore handle the economy well.
Trump did, after all, play such a character for many years on his reality television program, The Apprentice, making rapid-fire assessments of contestants’ business prowess and firing those that didn’t make the cut. His name had long been used in hip-hop music to symbolize wealth and flashy success. He published a book called The Art of the Deal.
For voters who aren’t dug into a particular ideological camp, the belief that a seemingly rich, successful businessman would be better at managing the economy than a typical politician seemed logical. And indeed, though Hillary Clinton led Trump in polls for most of the 2016 campaign, the electorate consistently thought he’d handle the economy better than she would.
Trump’s record during the first three years of his first term seemed to vindicate this belief, as growth remained strong and markets soared ever higher while unemployment, inflation, and interest rates all remained low. The Covid-19 pandemic threw that for a loop in 2020, but even then, voters didn’t fully turn against Trump on the economy.
The Biden presidency subsequently featured the highest inflation in decades, followed by huge hikes in interest rates by the Federal Reserve to try and conquer that inflation. Voters absolutely hated this, and Joe Biden’s popularity tanked. All this seemed to fit with the idea that Democrats are terrible at economic management and that, if Trump was back in power, he’d bring back the good old days of 2017–2019. Accordingly, Trump solidly outpolled Kamala Harris on the economy.
Since beginning his second term, though, Trump has been acting quite differently than he did in his first. He’s been much more aggressive on pushing his tariff and trade war agenda, in a way that’s been highly visible. The results have also been highly visible, as markets have plunged in the past few weeks.
In general, the second Trump term has been aimed toward pleasing the MAGA base. But if Trump cares about retaining his popularity among the less hardcore general election swing voters who helped him win in 2016 and 2024, this is an ominous sign. Of course, he may not care — he doesn’t have to face another election. Republican candidates around the country will be the ones in electoral peril.
