Mass deportations aren’t here — yet

President Donald Trump promised to set in motion his plan for mass deportations starting on his first day in office. But while he has begun to lay the legal groundwork to carry out the policy, it’s not clear that deportations are ramping up just yet — and they may not for a while.

Trump issued a flurry of executive orders designed to enable mass deportations during his first week in office. Those include directives to expand the use of fast-tracked deportations; decrease the number of immigrants apprehended at the border and released into the US; emphasize cooperation between federal immigration officers and local law enforcement; crack down on “sanctuary” cities and states that refuse to cooperate; and target cartels and members of international criminal gangs now designated as terrorist organizations.

The Trump administration also revoked policy guidance that barred immigration arrests at sensitive locations such as schools and churches, and it is looking into prosecuting state and local officials in sanctuary cities and states.

Trump officials are suggesting these actions have already resulted in a spike in deportations. They have made a point of highlighting charters of new deportation flights and their plans for US Immigration and Customs Enforcement raids in major cities, including Newark, New Jersey, and another that was reportedly postponed in Chicago.

“Deportation flights have begun,” Trump press secretary Karoline Leavitt posted on X. “President Trump is sending a strong and clear message to the entire world: if you illegally enter the United States of America, you will face severe consequences.”

But according to experts, it’s not clear that the number of deportations is actually greater than normal so far.

“So far, ICE hasn’t done anything unusual,” said César Cuauhtémoc García Hernández, a professor at the Ohio State University College of Law and author of several books on US immigration enforcement, including Welcome the Wretched.

The Department of Homeland Security did not respond to a request for comment.

So, how can we know when mass deportations have started in earnest — or whether they will at all?

How Trump’s deportations measure up so far

Despite claiming that he would preside over record deportations during his first term, deportations under Trump never surpassed those under former President Barack Obama, who was dubbed the “deporter-in-chief.” Obama deported about 2.9 million people during his first term and 1.9 million in his second, including about 400,000 in a single year. That far outpaced Trump’s 1.5 million deportations and Joe Biden’s 1.49 million.

In his second term, it’s not clear whether Trump is significantly picking up the pace just yet. Biden deported an average of around 700 people a day in fiscal year 2024, and after raids on Thursday, ICE announced it had deported 538 people.

These kinds of raids may be the symbolic beginning of mass deportations. But Trump would have to sustain them and expand them in the long run to reach his stated goal of deporting “millions and millions.”

About 11 million undocumented immigrants currently reside in the US. The Trump administration is looking to first prioritize the approximately 1.4 million of them who have final orders of removal, essentially the final step in legal proceedings before deportation.

“If all that ICE accomplishes is a series of splashy operations that take a lot of resources but come intermittently, then it will be a sign that the administration is better equipped to scare migrants than arrest and deport them in numbers that substantially exceed what the agency accomplished under Presidents Biden and Obama,” García Hernández said.

What we can expect going forward

Actually implementing Trump’s plans for mass deportations will require a large-scale and costly mobilization of government and law enforcement. That will not happen overnight.

“We’re not going to see a significant increase in actual deportations this year, even with the Trump administration’s best efforts, simply for logistical and financial reasons,” said Stephen Yale-Loehr, a professor of immigration law practice at Cornell Law School. “There will be some increase in actual deportations this year, but it’s not going to be millions of people.”

The law enforcement capacity needed to both secure the border and carry out mass raids in the interior of the US right now does not exist. Getting ICE, detention facilities, and immigration courts staffed to the levels Trump’s plan would need would require massive investment. That money would have to be approved by Congress, which already green lit another very expensive immigration bill in the last week and may be reluctant to drop more funds on the issue. However, Sean Ross, deputy chief of staff for Sen. Katie Britt (R-AL), told Axios that she would be pushing for increased ICE funding via the budget reconciliation process and future appropriations bills.

Another hurdle is finding immigrants, which may require cooperation with local law enforcement that sanctuary cities have been so far unwilling to provide.

Even those that ICE rounds up might not be deported immediately. Trump has tried to expand what’s called “expedited removal” so that anyone who has entered the US within the last two years can deported without a hearing before an immigration judge. But people who did not arrive in the US recently are entitled to such hearings, and the immigration court backlog currently stands at about 3.5 million cases. It could take years to deport people who are newly arrested and added to that backlog.

These practical challenges will make it difficult for Trump to quickly implement his campaign vision for mass deportations. But the reality of it may not matter so much as how the public perceives his agenda.

“What he’s trying to do is have a public relations campaign that sows fear and chaos among immigrant communities and assures his base that he is doing everything that he can to have increased immigration enforcement,” Yale-Loehr said.