Donald Trump’s scheme to rig the 2026 election so that Republicans can keep the House majority was always a dumb idea.
Political scientists who have studied the impacts of gerrymandering have found that gerrymanders don’t rig elections or pad majorities.
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In 2023, Yale’s Institution for Social and Policy Research (ISPS) and Harvard University analyzed all of the potential simulations of national gerrymandering scenarios.
Their conclusion:
Taken together, the data shows that most of the electoral bias cancels out at the national level, resulting in only a two-seat advantage for Republicans in the U.S. House of Representatives compared to what could have been drawn under geographic and legal constraints.
Gerrymandering can’t rig the House or create a voter-proof majority, but what it can do is create structural disadvantages in up to 8 House seats that will make it more challenging for Democrats to win those seats.
Trump thought that he could rig the election and create a Republican majority that could not be voted out of office.
That’s not how gerrymandering works. Gerrymandering is bad because it makes it harder for voters’ will to be heard.
Trump doesn’t understand any of this, which is why he is throwing a tantrum on Sunday over Indiana Republicans refusing to redraw their congressional districts.
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