Could the TikTok ban restructure the entire music industry?

Whether you turn to TikTok to doom-scroll, unwind after a long day, or laugh at silly trends and memes, its irresistible pull is undeniable — much like a viral song on the app that’s stuck in your head and impossible to escape.

TikTok’s influence has permeated nearly every industry, but its impact on how people discover and consume music is especially profound. In an era defined by internet-driven listening and interaction, TikTok has propelled the music industry to new heights.

This is bound to change now that the Supreme Court has announced its decision to uphold a federal law leading to a TikTok ban unless its Chinese-based parent company ByteDance sells to a U.S. company. The ban — which made the app unusable in the U.S. as of Saturday, Jan.18 — will surely impact industries like tech, entertainment and media, leaving more opportunity for billionaire overlords like Elon Musk, Jeff Bezos and Mark Zuckerberg to tighten their grasp on the American people’s technology usage. 

There are several alternative apps like RedNote, Instagram Reels and YouTube Shorts that people have flocked to in anticipation of the ban, but TikTok leads the charge in terms of how musicians communicate with their fans, how old songs regain new life, and how new independent artists can reach viral status seemingly overnight.

The content creator-focused video app’s first iteration was a lip-syncing platform called Musical.ly but the growing app didn’t hit the stratosphere until ByteDance merged with TikTok in 2018. Now TikTok has garnered over 170 million users in the U.S. Some of the largest record labels nationwide like Universal Music Group have taken advantage of that audience pool, using the app to promote artists and their music while the labels take home the lucrative pot of gold.

So now that TikTok has gone dark, what will happen to the everyday, hard-working musician? Will cash cow music labels also pivot to a new model after heavily relying on TikTok’s rapidly moving algorithm to discover artists and promote their superstars like Taylor Swift?

Salon interviewed Ediz Ozelkan, a media studies guest lecturer at the University of Colorado Boulder, who offered insight on how the TikTok ban could potentially change the music industry. Ozelkan studies technology’s larger effects on music and has written works highlighting the growing inequalities within the industry as the government and record labels have tried to control TikTok.

It’s unclear what will happen next, now that TikTok’s availability in the U.S. is in the hands of the government, but Ozelkan told Salon that losing it won’t necessarily be dire for smaller, unknown artists. He explained: “It doesn’t matter how many platforms they’re on, how great their music is. Unless they have a spark — whether that be from their music being shared by a popular podcast, a popular Instagram account, or a popular TikTok account — without that catalyst, there are few opportunities for this virality.”

But Ozelkan also stated, “Anytime there’s a change in the status quo — that is harmful.” 

Read Salon’s interview with Ozelkan down below to learn more about the TikTok ban’s larger effects on the music industry:

The following transcript has been lightly edited for length and clarity. 

The clock ran down for TikTok, it seems. Why has the Supreme Court and or Congress favored this ban?

It comes down to a cybersecurity issue more than anything. I understand that TikTok takes a lot of personal information from us users, and many Congresspeople might view that as a national security threat. I don’t fully agree with that because if there was a national security threat, I’m sure that would have already been a compromise that we’ve made already. If nothing’s happened yet, I don’t think it will move forward. But nonetheless, the state has a national security issue, and it’s exactly why I don’t think that there will be a favorable ruling for TikTok. 

How has the music world evolved in the last several years with the streaming boom and apps like TikTok?

There’s been a whole lot of changes there and the internet is really this fundamental technological change that has given out the perception that artists can now have opportunities they did not have in the past. You look to someone like Justin Bieber who got famous on YouTube. Look at someone like Lil Nas X who got famous basically on TikTok and then got a record deal with Columbia Records. Then you can look at fledgling artists like Oliver Anthony two years ago, who got famous with “Rich Men North of Richmond.” Some of these are examples of the possible successes that an artist can make online so that both encourages artists to enter the music industry and then also encourages fans to say, “Hey, if I want to discover new music, this is where I need to be on these platforms that aid music discover.”

In what ways has this affected the larger industry like corporate labels?

There’s a lot of different changes happening. I can look to total music industry revenue numbers that were roughly about $17 billion in 2023, almost $15 billion of which came from digital sources. So we’ve seen an enormous overhaul in the music industry’s revenue sources, whereby the internet is its primary means of expansion, in contrast. Look at the early 2000s, the internet was the primary means behind its contraction. So you have a complete reversal here of how the internet affected the music industry.

It just took the industry some time to fully monetize on the potential of the internet, and it has succeeded. The music industry has been on an upswing since 2015 — it’s more than doubled its revenue since that point.

Last year, Universal Music Group took its artists’ music like Taylor Swift, Olivia Rodrigo and Drake off of TikTok after their contract with the app expired. Was this a move that protected artists’ interests or labels’ revenue?

The idea was that it was supposed to protect artists, I believe that it was the labels who were trying to protect themselves more than anything. The major record labels — we have three major record labels in the U.S. — they are used to having the power in the artist, fan and label nexus. They were not ready to let platforms have their own space in that nexus. So they were trying to use their economic muscle to coerce TikTok into creating a similar economic situation where radios would basically follow record labels rather than the opposite. So now record labels have to follow TikTok because of TikTok’s enormous power.

Universal Music Group did however fold, renegotiating a new contract that was said to increase royalty revenue and protections against A.I. What does this move show about TikTok’s hold on labels as big as Universal? 

It looks like there is room for compromise. As you said, Universal did lead to an agreement that was at least good enough for them, but it still demonstrates that TikTok has the upper hand. Even if Universal pulled its music from TikTok, TikTok didn’t shut down its operations [and] didn’t have a retaliatory effort. It knew that it had the standing where Universal would eventually come crawling back. That’s emblematic of the shifting priorities in the music industry landscape, where the artists have always been at the bottom of the totem pole and now there’s just a power struggle between the record labels and platforms.

Are artists even reaping the benefits from deals like this?

Well, that’s the question because we see someone like Taylor Swift pulling $2 billion in a tour completely unprecedented. Not to say she doesn’t deserve it, but that does not reflect the economic reality for most musical artists. So the data I dive into is primarily on wages and employment and most of that seems to suggest that the internet era did not really provide the opportunities that it was supposed to. The internet was supposed to be this frontier where artists could create new connections with their fans, where fans could discover artists pretty much anywhere, and any unknown artists could get famous, as long as their product was good enough. I don’t think the data tells that story.

TikTok has democratized fame and success, but how much of that short-lived virality is aiding in a musician’s career and income long term?

The real big story here is the difference between the Taylor Swifts of the world and everyone else. So it’s to say that TikTok has had a beneficial impact on these extremely large artists but not necessarily those at the bottom. There are people who will continue to sort of not be recognized despite the promises of TikTok. Whereas there are a few people who break through — look at Sabrina Carpenter or Chappell Roan —  these people have broken through with the aid of TikTok. But not only so by and large. There are less music professionals employed in 2023 versus 1999.

Meanwhile, you see wages at the bottom continuously being outpaced by wages at the top. We have wages from music composers. They grew from 1999 to 2015 so that would suggest that there was a sort of democratizing effort as wages grew.

However, when the music industry returned to growth from 2015 to 2023 the new technological landscape meant that those in the top 10% of earners among music composers saw wages grow far more quickly. This is to say that as the music industry returned to growth. It’s primarily benefited those at the top.

What do those inequalities look like between the big-earning artists backed by powerful labels versus the struggling independent artists?

This is the problem, really, when it comes to data. The data I’m looking at will probably not include someone like Taylor Swift, Drake or Olivia Rodrigo, but it will capture the bulk of music production in the country — and I can say that among music performers, the top 10% of income earners generate more than seven times the amount of the bottom 10% of income earners, so that gap will only be sort of exponentially growing as you get to these superstars as well.

What could a TikTok ban do to this growing gap that you’ve highlighted? TikTok helps these top earners, but does it give a platform to independent artists?

I would argue yes. Any new platform or existing platform will give a space for amateur artists to have their voices heard. The problem is that the algorithmic logic by which a platform like TikTok operates does not necessarily equate to success for those at the bottom.

The whole thing is that something that is already popular becomes more and more popular. It’s a snowball effect that unless you have that first bit of snow, you won’t be able to compound the effect. Therefore, for unknown artists, It doesn’t matter how many platforms they’re on, how great their music is. Unless they have a spark — whether that be from their music being shared by a popular podcast, a popular Instagram account, or a popular TikTok account — without that catalyst, there are few opportunities for this virality that would create the superstar of a Taylor Swift.

Does a TikTok ban really have as much influence as we think it might?

Honestly, I don’t think it will, because people will flock to new platforms. Artists are already spread among a dozen plus different platforms. All it means is that they have one less, or a TikTok competitor comes into the mix. In that way, artists are not solely existing on TikTok, whether you’re amateur or professional. So the evisceration of TikTok will not necessarily destroy an artist’s ability to reach audiences.

It will only really impact those artists who frankly, just know TikTok better than other platforms. They might be more engaged there through the video, the audio-visual element, compared with maybe just a textual element or a picture sort of format in something like Instagram. If they are better behind a camera, maybe that will hurt them initially. But as I said, all the other platforms have audio-visual elements at this point, you can just go on to Reels. You can go post a video onto X or Threads. It’s going to have a similar impact, as long as the algorithm helps.

Major artists last year like Grammy nominees Sabrina Carpenter, Chappell Roan and Charli XCX, have largely benefited from the TikTok effect: Can labels recreate these levels of fame without TikTok? Or is TikTok the driving factor?

I think TikTok was the driving factor. Now that framework has been established, it’s like there’s a first-mover advantage here for TikTok. But it’s not like the first computer never got another competitor. We have dozens of brands that we can choose today, and it’s going to be exactly the same for a music and video-sharing platform. So if TikTok was that catalyst 567 years ago, right now, there will be other platforms for artists to thrive. I think that especially in the cases of these existing large names, they’re just going to bring their communities with them to whatever platform they may choose.

You might look at J. Cole’s recent turn to a platform to create a super fan experience among his fans. He quite literally said, “Okay, this is a startup platform with, for the most part, no name artists.” He just said, “Hey, this is a platform that allows me to make money.” It allows J Cole to make money. It allows super fans to create this curated and individualized experience for them. Since the super fan is the sort of new focus of the music industry, I think that platforms like other platforms that will help to create these curated experiences for a dedicated fan base that are going to create a similar amplifying effect that TikTok had.

I am curious to see what will happen with new talent. Have labels invested too much in this app being a self-driving vehicle that works on its own?

I think that’s been true of the music industry for decades. The music industry has always relied on technology. Outside of the industry, [it] needed radio and the recording technologies, the audio, the early audio recording technologies, the CD. It needed cassettes, it needed the internet and television to create a space for music to thrive. In that way, the music industry has always focused on creating music and letting other people create the media through which that music is designed. So I don’t see, for example, Universal creating its own app anytime soon. Maybe they take that job. I think they are an old-school company that is going to rely on the innovations of others.

Could major labels and independent artists shift to a whole new model because they’ve been heavily reliant on TikTok?

That’s very possible. The problem isn’t finding a profitable model, because there is a growing revenue share among the top firms in the music industry, and that hasn’t reversed with the internet quite yet. Granted, that data is far more sparse than the data I was studying before, but unless an enormous reversal happens in that way, I don’t see how independent [artists] are going to fundamentally alter their business models — at least in terms of how they’re going to produce music and how they’re going to try to get it out.

I do think that the turn towards the super fan in creating curated experiences and exclusive drops is something that independents are going to continue to rely on. But what happens next is anyone’s guess. It’s going to be contingent on what technology is available, what replaces TikTok, and ultimately, what fans expect out of their musical experience. I mean, I’m someone who is not a super fan, to be frank, I’m part of, for example, the top 1% of listeners for 311 on my Spotify Wrapped. Oh, I’m this great, super fan. I don’t remember the last time I’ve spent money on [them]. I actually love the band, but if people are like me and have gotten used to a convenience factor in music and a very inexpensive access to music, it’s going to be very difficult to convert those kinds of fans into a revenue-generating asset. This is exactly why the music industry has focused so much on these super fans in the last few years.

Ultimately, the TikTok ban could shift the music industry but how will this harm or benefit the small, independent artists?

It’s going to be harmful in some ways, beneficial in others. You have new artists or even established artists who have finally gotten the hang of TikTok or have slowly grown their audiences from five to 10 to 100 to maybe 1000 and now all that hard work — if it doesn’t translate quickly into another platform — will be gone. Especially if TikTok shuts down. I’m not sure TikTok has mentioned that users will be able to download their own data, but I’m not sure what that will entail.

For example, will it be the data of your followers — like perhaps, maybe just an email address or a phone number, so that they could link their followers on Tiktok to Instagram and X or YouTube, wherever they may end up if they don’t have that option — which I imagine is going to be the case. I don’t think TikTok is going to be giving out more data than it needs to. It means that all the hard work that went into TikTok will have been wasted. Unless that translates into another opportunity elsewhere.

On the other hand, though, for those who have not been good at TikTok and focused on other areas of cultivating fandoms, this might be a benefit to them. It may be a return to Instagram, or it might be a shift to a new place. And that could be where innovators among artists can thrive.